This is a multi-part series that explores the financial health of
the Jacksonville Jaguars. In order to put the Jags financial data into perspective it is necessary to understand stadium capacity
and attendance data also. Those statistics are best understood when put in the context of regional population. Population
data is from the 2000 US Census. All other data is from the 2004 season.
This article will focus on Alltel Stadium. How large is it? How large should it be? What happens,
if it is too large? Will covering seats help?
Alltel Stadium Size
When the Jaguars were just a sparkle in Wayne Weaver's eye, there already was concern about the proposed
size of the soon to be renovated Jacksonville Municipal Stadium (JMS). Proponents for the Florida-Georgia Game (world's largest
cocktail party) wanted a stadium that would seat 5,000,000 patrons. The Gator Bowl committee wanted a stadium that held 500,000.
The Jaguars and the NFL had done their research and looked at demographic data and recommended 50,000 seats.
Since JMS was a municipal stadium, it needed to be designed to serve several masters. The Florida-Georgia
people and the Gator Bowl people got together and lowered their recommendation to 80,000 seats, while the Jaguars raised their
total to 62,000. The resulting compromise was a 73,000 seat stadium for Jaguar games that could be expanded to 80,000 (using
temporary seating) for college games.
Compromises seem logical, but what was the impact of that decision on the Jaguars attendance, ticket
prices, blackouts and gate receipts.
Population Demographics
The following data comes from the 2000 census data. The Jaguars and the NFL used 1990 census data
that projected future population rates. Geographic areas for the US census are divided into MSAs or Metropolitan Statistical
Areas. The Greater Jacksonville MSA includes Duval County, St. John's County, Clay County and Nassau County. The MSA is a
good approximation of the population that lives within reasonable commuting distance of Alltel Stadium. That is the Jaguar's
primary target population for ticket sales.
It would not shock anyone to know that the Jacksonville MSA is the smallest NFL MSA in the league
(assuming that Green Bay is in the Milwaukee MSA). Here are the nine teams that are located in MSAs that have a population
less than two million people.
- Jacksonville (1,100,491)
- Buffalo (1,170,111)
- Nashville (1,231,311)
- New Orleans (1,231,311) before Katrina!
- Charlotte (1,499,293)
- Indianapolis (1,607,485)
- Milwaukee (1,689,572)
- Kansas City (1,776,662)
- Cincinnati (1,979,202)
The average NFL MSA size is 4,845,695. The median is Phoenix at 3,251.876. The largest MSA is New York
City at 21,199,865. Jacksonville is the 46th largest MSA in the United States. So there are 15 MSAs that do not have an NFL
franchise that are larger than Jacksonville. So how big should a pro stadium be that serves the NFL's smallest
market?
Right Sizing
It shouldn't surprise anyone to know that the Jaguars have less population per stadium seat than any
NFL team. The average population per stadium seat in the NFL is 67.92. The median is Phoenix at 44.42. The largest is New
York City at 264.34. Below are the bottom five teams in terms of population per stadium seat:
- Jacksonville (15.08)
- Buffalo (15.81)
- Nashville (17.90)
- New Orleans (19.36)
- Charlotte (20.43)
What does this mean? Well on any given Sunday the Jaguars need one out of every 15.08 people that live
in the four county area to buy a ticket and show up for the Jaguar game. Whereas, in the average NFL city they need one out
of every 67.72 people to buy a seat to sell out. Now the NFL knew this data! So why did they put a franchise in Jacksonville
anyway?
How large should Alltel be?
If we were to size Alltel stadium so that the ratio of population to seats was at the NFL average we
would have a stadium with 16,203 seats! If sized at the median the stadium would hold 24,775 patrons. Well those numbers are
ridiculous. But they prove a point! At an attendance figure of 50,000, the Jaguars would still be in the top
five in attendance per population in the NFL.
When the Jaguars downsized from 73,000 (11th largest) seats to 67,000 (22nd largest) the ratio increased
from 15.08 to 16.43 passing only the Buffalo Bills. So even with the reduced stadium size the Jaguars and the Bills are the
top two teams in seats per population. Not bad for a town that the Jags front office and the media claim to be a 'college
town'. A city that doesn't have that NFL passion of old school NFL cities. Second to Buffalo. You know where the choices in
the fall are football game or ice fishing. Not bad for a town whose choices are golf, the beach, fishing (sans ice), the beach,
boating, the beach and the beach.
The Coverup
So the Jaguars covered up 6,000 seats to avoid blackouts. And they lowered
ticket prices to help fill the stadium. But to be a successful franchise they will need to raise ticket prices over time to
improve gate receipts to the NFL average. It's one thing to right size the stadium. But the lost revenue from lower attendance
must be made up in average ticket price. Ticket prices are going in the wrong direction.
The Jaguars average ticket price in 2005 was $57.03 which was 29th in the league. Only Buffalo, Arizona
and Miami had lower averages. The median average ticket price was Indianapolis at $68.42. The average of the averages was
$70.07. Do the math. If the Jaguars averaged $10.00 more per ticket (to get close to the league average) they would
generate another $6M per year in gate receipts, which would put them at the league average for total gate receipts.
The Uncoverup
The only way to raise ticket prices over time is to have the demand for tickets outweigh the supply
of tickets. But guess what. When that happens there will be a public outcry to uncover those covered up seats. Which will
turn the supply/demand equation the wrong way. It is one thing to cover up seats. It is quite another to ignore those covered
up seats.
Summary of Size Matters
Jaguar average attendance in 2004 was 69,433, which happens to be 14th in the NFL that year. It is 1st
in the NFL in attendance per capita. So no more denigration of Jacksonville fans and their lack of support of this team. You
got that Vic Ketchman and sports talk radio nation. No more college town labels. You hear me, Pete Prisco. Jacksonville
is an NFL town! It just isn't an NFL size market!
